Monday October 29th, 2012
What can be said about Sandy that hasn’t been said already? Well, I’d saying having a blizzard and a hurricane in the same state (Maryland) at the same time is pretty noteworthy. It just doesn’t happen…until today. Yes, a blizzard warning for western Maryland while hurricane winds roar ashore on the east side of the state. All of the Mid-Atlantic and New England will be less then PWI 3 Monday.
A ton of a bad weather of course, but lots of good weather too, especially in Texas. Just scattered PWI 10 locations throughout the Southwest.
Best: 1. Texas 2. New Mexico 3. Arizona 4. Oklahoma 5. California
Worst: 1. Pennsylvania 2. Maryland 3. Ohio 4. West Virginia 5. New York
Sunday October 29th, 2012
It looks like Sandy will make landfall on Monday in northern New Jersey or perhaps right over New York City. High winds, heavy rain, and coastal flooding will all begin late Sunday as the storm approaches. Monday looks like it will be the worst day. Cold air and front over Ohio and western Pennsylvania will provide some chilly rains tomorrow, then as Sandy approaches, heavy snow will develop in West Virginia. Quite a mess.
Is there any good weather Sunday? Of course, there is always some place having perfect weather and tomorrow it looks like the Desert Southwest again will be best. Some picks tomorrow include: Foster City, Oxnard,and Lake Arrowhead in California. Scattered 10’s in the Nevada desert including Scotty’s Junction and Jean. A few 10’s in the mountains of Arizona around Sedona. The first 10’s I’ve seen this season in Texas appear around Pecos, Barstow and parts of Big Bend National Park.
Best: 1. Arizona 2. California 3. Texas 4. Florida 5. Nevada
Worst: 1. Pennsylvania 2. Delaware 3. Maryland 4. West Virginia 5. Ohio
Friday October 26th, 2012
All eyes on Sandy. This still looks like a disaster in the making as Sandy will bring widespread high winds, heavy rain, and coastal flooding Monday and Tuesday. If you live in the Northeast, prepare this weekend! So what’s the big deal about this storm? Why are weather people so amped up? First, the strength of the low pressure. Meteorologists measure storms in millibars of pressure. Big nor’easters are usually on the order of 960-980 mb. Most reliable models predict this storm to be 930-950 mb. Unusually strong. This translates into more wind. The track is also worrisome to meteorologists because it will affect all the major East Coast cities like Washington, NYC, and Boston. Another interesting factor in this storm is it’s shear size. It will encompass an unusually large area compared with other hurricanes. Strong winds will occur Monday/Tuesday from Maine to the Carolinas. So is this a hurricane? Yes. As it approaches New York City, cold air will get sucked into the storm and it will begin to lose it’s tropical characteristics, but for laypeople, it’s a hurricane. One last thing to point out is the coastal flood threat. Usually, the northeast side of a hurricane is the worst part because these winds are pushing water forward. So watch anywhere to the right of the center for the worst coastal flooding…ie. Long Island and New York City. Not a good scenario.
In the meantime, not too bad on the East Coast Friday. Warm weather will push north all the way to Vermont ahead of the storm. Vermont will be the best in the nation with an 8.7 mean. Some perfect 10’s in the Champlain Valley around Cambridge, Williston, Vergennes, and Shoreham. A small patch of 10’s in North Carolina around Lewisville.
The rest of the 10’s tomorrow will be in California. Some picks here include: Concord, San Ramon, Palo Alto, and Bakersfield.
I added the forecast track of Sandy on the map today.
Best: 1. Vermont 2. West Virginia 3. Connecticut 4. New Hampshire 5. New York
Worst: 1. Washington 2. Indiana 3. Oregon 4. North Dakota 5. Idaho
Thursday October 25th, 2012
A quick post to show tomorrow’s forecast. Not too good from Washington to Wisconsin as a huge cool low pressure dominates. Snow is possible in the northern areas of the region as well. This low and cold will shift east the next few days and get reinforced by another low. All of this will combine with hurricane Sandy off the East Coast and create a “perfect storm”…that’s a very very low pressure which will trounce somebody (probably a lot of people) from the mid-Atlantic to New England. Anyone in this region should watch closely. This storm looks to be historic! The first signs of the storm will be felt tomorrow along the east coast of Florida.
Until then, nice weather in the East mainly around Virginia and the Carolinas. Some perfect 10’s in the mountains of Virginia, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Tennessee.
Out West, perfect weather around Flagstaff and the deserts of southwest New Mexico.
Thursday August 30th, 2012
Isaac will weaken now that it is over land, but the effects are really just beginning. Rain will spread north as it moves inland and the perfect weather index will be quite low along its path the next few days. Thursday, Louisiana will still be the worst as a foot of rain is expected. This will expand north to Arkansas and Missouri which could actually use rain as they have been on the edge of the severe drought over the Midwest. Too bad the storm could not have taken a little more westerly track into the worst drought areas. You can see from the map below that this rain will be very beneficial to a few places.
There will be some good weather to talk about tomorrow as well. Not much in the East except a few mountain locations in West Virginia near Durbin. A few perfect 10’s in New Mexico for the first time that I can remember this year. One town here is Alto, New Mexico. The majority of the perfect weather will be in Montana including: Sandy, Whitefish, Quigley, Virginia City, and Basin. Next door in Idaho, a lot of great weather as well especially in the northern part of the state including: Elmira, Coolin, Sand Point, and Kellogg. Scattered perfect 10’s in Washington, Oregon, and California as well.
Best 1. Montana 2. Connecticut 3. Oregon 4. Pennsylvania 5. Idaho
Worst 1. Louisiana 2. Mississippi 3. Alaska 4. Arkansas 5. Alabama
Wednesday August 29th, 2012
Expected Rainfall From Isaac
Isaac should come ashore early Wednesday with the usual potpourri of terrible weather. New Orleans should see the brunt of the bad weather with a foot rain expected. Yes, a foot…or even more! Meanwhile, an outbreak of perfect weather in New England, especially for northern Pennsylvania where a giant streak of PWI 10’s will be found from Erie to Warren to Wysox. In Central New York: Erwinds, Townsend, Mapleton, and Marysville to name a few. Also a large area in the Hudson Valley of New York from Ticonderoga to Saratoga Springs to Tray and Catskill. A lot of 10’s in New Hampshire including Rye, Jaffrey and Northwood.
Out West, perfect 10’s mainly scattered through Southeast Oregon and few in California. In Oregon: Bly, and Lorella, Merrill. In California: Monte Rio, San Rafael, Piedmont, Santa Cruz, Ventura, Santa Monica, and Imperial Beach.
Best 1. Connecticut 2. Pennsylvania 3. Massachusetts 4. Rhode Island 5. New York
Worst 1. Louisiana 2. Mississippi 3. Alaska 4. Florida 5. Georgia
Saturday August 25th, 2012
Two main features on the Perfect Weather Index map Saturday. First, tropical storm Isaac will be heading northwest toward the Gulf Of Mexico, passing just west of Key West, Florida. So far, this looks like a pretty weak storm and land interaction with Cuba will probably keep it from gaining much strength. That being said, once it comes out into the Gulf, there could be significant strengthening. I have added the projected path of the storm to the map. This may change some over the weekend, but anywhere from New Orleans to Pensacola, Florida should be on the lookout. How does Isaac play into perfect weather? Obviously, it should be as bad as it gets but that’s not entirely the case. The only redeeming factor of a hurricane is that it knocks the temperatures down into a comfortable range. So for that max temperatures you might actually have a 8 or 9. The apparent temperature may be similar to the max temperature, so you may have 6 to 8 in that area. The rest including wind, rain, and clouds will all be a 1 for sure. So I would expect no less than about 3 or 4 on the Perfect Weather Index in the hurricane areas and in fact, far South Florida will be a 4 tomorrow as the storm approaches.
Interstate 15 near Shelby, Montana
The other thing happening tomorrow is the outbreak of perfect weather in the West. Looks like Big Sky Country (Montana) will again lead the way in the overall mean and in thenumber of perfect 10’s. Some of the more significant towns with perfect 10’s in Montana include: Shelby, Whitefish, Proctor, and Avon. Next door in Idaho: North Fork, Big Creek, Galena, and Silver City. In Wyoming: Wapiti, Story, and Sundance. In Oregon and Washington perfect 10’s show up in lower elevations than recent weeks including some of the Coast Range and portions of Puget Sound. Here I’ve got Stanwood, Clearview, Ruston, Johnson Ridge on Mt. St. Helenes…all in Washington.
1. Montana 1. Oklahoma
2. Washington 2. Alaska
3. Wyoming 3. Arkansas
4. Maine 4. Texas
5. Idaho 5. Delaware